The Center Matters for the Periphery: On the Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity

About this item

Title

The Center Matters for the Periphery: On the Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity

Content partner

University of Canterbury Library

Collection

UC Research Repository

Description

This paper examines whether information from bond markets provides a reliable signal for future economic activity in Europe. The inclusion of a risk-adjusted bond yield spread improves markedly the goodness of fit of the forecasting equation for economic activity in four countries on the European periphery. The within-sample forecasting ability of the GZ-spread is remarkable, both over the whole sample period and a sub-sample period marking the effective beginning of the EMU in Europe. Its ef...

Read more

Format

Research paper

Research format

Conference paper

Date created

2013

Creator

Guender, A.V. / Tolan, B.

URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10092/10555

Related subjects

corporate bond yield spread / predictive content / economic activity in Europe / Financial and Debt Crisis / Economics / Applied economics / Financial economics / Applied Economics / International Economics and International Finance / Econometrics / Economic models and forecasting

What is the copyright status of this item?

All Rights Reserved

This item is all rights reserved, which means you'll have to get permission from University of Canterbury Library before using it.

More Information

You can learn more about the rights status of this item at: https://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651

What can I do with this item?

You must always check with University of Canterbury Library to confirm the specific terms of use, but this is our understanding:

Non-infringing use

NZ Copyright law does not prevent every use of a copyright work. You should consider what you can and cannot do with a copyright work.

No sharing

You may not copy and/or share this item with others without further permission. This includes posting it on your blog, using it in a presentation, or any other public use.

No modifying

You are not allowed to adapt or remix this item into any other works.

No commercial use

You may not use this item commercially.